Aggregate Findings

  • Survey respondents reported a 0.2% premium decrease during the third quarter of 2015.
  • Commercial insurance prices in aggregate had been increasing marginally for the past three years. Although minimal, this quarter shows the first quarter of decrease since 2011 Q3.
  • The increase were highest in the third quarter 2014 at 3.0%. Since the third quarter of 2014, the magnitude of the price level increase had been gradually decreasing.
  • Price increases were reported for commercial auto, general products liability and excess umbrella liability. Survey respondents reported the largest price increases in the general products and liability line at 1.4%, followed by commercial auto line at 1.1%. Commercial property, which represents the largest volume reflected in the survey, shows a decrease of 0.3%.
  • Price changes for all lines were in the low- to mid-single digits.
  • Reported claim cost information reveals an improvement of 3.4% in loss ratios in accident year 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. We note that as year-to-date survey results provide a preliminary perspective, a subset of the participants provide claims cost inflation and as claims results can be volatile, insurers will wish to review and monitor additional data as it becomes available.
  • Carrier estimates of the claim cost inflation underlying the loss ratio movement is -1.2% for accident year 2015.

Change in price level versus same quarter one year prior

Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey – Q3 2015