In March, we published our Five-Year Capital Market Outlook for 2017, which highlighted the following important financial market issues:

  • Generally easy monetary policy – despite Fed rate rises – and fiscal easing are likely to produce moderately above trend global growth and lift developed world inflation in the next two years. Over our five year horizon, monetary tightening will slow real growth;
  • The possibility of outsized positive and negative growth and and inflation surprises has risen;
  • Waves created by years of falling interest rates and central bank liquidity – which increased asset prices – have crested;
  • We expect positive but low long-term asset returns, with rising downside risks over time;

In this report, we compare the future economic conditions that the major asset markets are pricing-in with our outlook. Please download the PDF for the full report.